渭干河流域生态系统服务的空间溢出及对居民福祉的影响

Spatial flow of ecosystem services and impacts on human well-being in the Weigan River Basin

生态系统服务的空间流动性对流域居民福祉产生了重大影响。本文基于场强理论和断裂点模型构建了流域生态系统服务空间转移模型,以MA的人类福祉框架为基础建立流域居民福祉评价指标体系,运用格兰杰因果关系检验方法及灰色关联模型,以渭干河流域为例,分析了2000-2010年流域生态系统服务价值空间流转及其对居民福祉的影响。结果表明:①流域生态系统服务存在空间溢出效应。渭干河流域上游向下游的生态系统服务流转强度与距离成反比,溢出价值先下降后波动上升。②渭干河流域居民福祉由基本需求、安全与健康、精神三个层次构成,按重要性排序表现为安全与健康>基本需求>精神需求,并呈现出库车县的福祉水平最高、拜城县其次、沙雅县再次、新和县最低的空间分异特征。③流域生态系统服务空间流转是居民福祉的格兰杰原因,前者对后者产生了较显著的影响,对安全与健康福祉产生的影响最大,上游森林生态系统服务流转与下游居民福祉的耦合度最高,荒漠与居民福祉的耦合度最低。

The spatial flow of ecosystem services has a great impact on human well-being on-site and off-site, especially in watersheds. Taking the Weigan River basin as an example, an assessment model of ecosystem service overflow was built according to the Theory of Field Strength and Breaking Point model. The ecosystem service overflow from upstream to downstream was calculated from 2000 to 2010. The system of indicators for human well-being was established by considering natural, social and economic conditions as well as data availability for the basin. Granger Causality Test and the Grey Correlation models are introduced to analyze how ecosystem service overflow impacts people. We found that there is a spatial overflow effect of watershed ecosystem services. On the spatial dimension, intensity of ecosystem service overflow from upstream to downstream is inversely proportional to distance. The values of ecosystem service overflow decrease first and then increase. The indicator system of human well-being constituted with three level indicators including basic requirements, safety and health and spiritual needs whose importance can be ranked as safety and health 〉 basic demands 〉 spiritual. The spatial differentiation features of human well-being show that Kuqa is the highest level, Baicheng the second, Shaya the third and Xinhe the lowest. Ecosystem service overflow is the Granger reason of human well-being, which has a great influence on basin human well-being. Ecosystem service overflow has an enormous impact on safety and health in the indicator system. Ecosystem service overflow of forest has the highest coupling degree with human well-being. The coupling degree between the desert and human well-being is the lowest. Effective ways that enhance human well- being of watersheds are to integrate natural resource accounting into the national economic accounting system, compensate for farmland protection and carry out payments for watershed ecological services between upstream and downstream.