马克思两大部类模型与中国经济的宏观结构:一个经验研究

Marxian Two-Sector Reproduction Schema and Chinese Macroeconomic Structures:An Empirical Investigation

宏观经济结构的调整和优化是实现国民经济稳步持续增长的重要保证。马克思的两大部类再生产模型科学地界定了宏观经济结构及其与资本有机构成、剩余价值率和利润率等重要变量之间的动态关系,是马克思主义政治经济学分析宏观经济结构的重要工具之一。在探析从投入产出表到两大部类宏观模型的对应关系的基础上,我们利用中国2000年至2010年投入产出表的数据构建了一个中国宏观经济结构的两部类模型,并对其中的生产资料部类与消费资料部类的结构、收入分配结构和总需求结构及其与资本—工资率、利润—工资率、利润率的动态关系进行了经验分析。研究发现:中国宏观经济结构的经验数据及其变化趋势与马克思主义经济学理论所预期的基本一致,说明马克思的两大部类再生产模型对现实经济具有很好的解释和预测能力,可以为宏观经济分析和管理提供坚实的理论基础。

The adjustment and optimization of macroeconomic structures is an important guarantee for the constant and steady growth of national economy. Marxian two-sector reproduction schema is a fun- damental tool of political economy for the analysis of macroeconomic structure, since it scientifically defines the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic structures and some important variables, such as the capital organic composition, the surplus value rate and profit margins. On the basis of on the mapping of input-output table and two major divisions model, we exploit China＇s input-output ta- bles between 2000 and 2010 to construct a two-sector reproduction schema of the country＇s macroeconomy and structure, and make empirical investigations into the dynamic relationship among the structure of production division and consumption division, the income distribution structure, aggregate demand structure and the capital-wage rates, profit-wage rates, profit rate from perspectives of political economy. It is found that the structure data and the changing trend of China＇s macro economy are basically consistent with the prediction of Marxist economic theories, which means that Marx＇s two major division reproduction models are fully capable of explaining and predicting the real economy, and therefore capable of providing a solid theoretical basis for macroeconomic analysis and management.