跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国际经验研究——基于40个国家的面板数据分析

Research on International Experiences for Striding Across “Middle-Income Trap”——Panel Data Analysis Based on 40 Countries

我国已步入中上等收入国家行列,但同时也面临陷入"中等收入陷阱"的威胁。通过对14个典型陷入"中等收入陷阱"的国家与26个成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的国家1995-2014年的面板数据,采用静态面板固定效应模型估计、动态面板差分GMM和系统GMM估计的方法,分别对两组国家经济增长影响因素因素做了实证分析。研究发现:对跨越"中等收入陷阱"国家来说,技术进步、劳动参与率、消费需求、政府清廉和城镇化对其经济增长和跨越中等收入阶段起明显的拉动作用;对于没有跨越"中等收入陷阱"的国家来说,技术进步、投资需求、对外贸易和经济自由对其经济增长有明显的拉动作用;劳动参与率、城镇化、清廉指数对经济增长的影响视经济发展阶段而定。

China has currently stepped onto the stage of middle - high income level, whereas China is confronted with falling into ＂Middle-Income Trap＂ as well. This paper choses panel data from 1995 to 2014 of 14 typical countries falling into ＂Middle - Income Trap＂ and 26 countries striding across ＂ Middle - Income Trap＂ . We have conducted an empirical study on factors effecting economic growth for the two group countries by fixed effect, differential GMM and system GMM estimation. The research results show that： （ 1 ） For those countries striding across ＂Middle - Income Trap＂, techno- logical advance, labor participation rate, consumption demand, government~ incorruptness and urbanization have an ob- vious pulling effect for their economic growth ; （2） For those not striding across ＂Middle - Income Trap＂, technological advance, investment demand, trade and economic freedom have played an important role for economic growth; （3） The effect of labor participation rate, urbanization and government＇s incorruptness for economic growth depends on the stage of economic development.