我国财政政策促进就业增长了吗?——基于1993-2015年中国省级面板数据的实证检验

Does China's Fiscal Policy Promote Employment Growth?——Empirical Testing on Chinese Provincial Panel Data Based on 1993-2015

在经济下行的现阶段,我国就业形势比较严峻,政府需要采取相应宏观经济政策予以应对。因此,有必要对我国政府前期出台促进就业的财政政策进行效应评价,以便为下阶段政策的制定提供有价值的借鉴。选取1993-2015年的省级面板数据,对我国这一时期促进就业的财政政策进行了实证检验,结果表明:财政支出政策在就业水平的提升方面有一定促进作用,但效果并不理想;而税收政策与国债政策对就业影响基本不显著,这表明我国财政政策未能较好地带动就业增长。最后提出了对中小服务型企业提供财税支持、加大对劳动者就业培训与保障的支出和加强结构性减税的力度等政策建议。

In the current economic downturn, China＇s employment situation is grim, the government needs to take appropriate mac roeconomic policies to deal with. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of the fiscal policy on the promotion of employment in China, so as to provide valuable reference for the development of the policy in the next stage. This paper selects the 1993 -2015 provincial panel data, the empirical test on fiscal policy to promote employment during this peri od. The results show that the role of improving the fiscal expenditure policy in the level of employment, but the effect is not ideal; and the impact of tax policy and the national debt policy on employment is not significant, which indicates that China＇s fiscal policy has failed to bring good employment growth. In the end, it puts forward policy suggestions on the support of minor enterprise sized service enterprises, such as providing finance and tax support, increasing the training and security of labor employment, and strengthening the structural tax reduction.