“修昔底德陷阱”对中美关系发展的非适用性分析

The Analysis of the Inapplicability of Thucydides' Trap for the Development of Sino-U. S. Relationship

近年来,一些西方学者炮制"修昔底德陷阱"并依此预测中美两个大国在世界权力转移中必然爆发战争。"修昔底德陷阱"的理论依据主要来源于权力转移理论和安全困境理论,它主要预设了三个前提条件,即新兴国家寻求武力改变现有体系、国际体系的无政府状态以及霸权战争的收益大于成本。然而,这些前提假定完全不符合当今世界政治发展的客观现实,也有悖于当代中国和平发展的实践和中美关系发展的主流大势,因而将"修昔底德陷阱"机械地套用于分析中美关系的发展犯了本质性的错误。

In recent periods,some western scholars advocate the notion of Thucydides' Trap as the premise of the prediction that a war is doomed to break out between China and the United States in the process of power transition around the world. Sourced from the theory of power transition and security dilemma,the theory of Thucydides' Trap is based upon three prerequisite conditions: the first is the inevitability that emerging countries will resort to military force to change the existing international system,the second is the anarchy of the international system and the third is the presumption that the costs of the hegemonic war outweigh the benefits. However,all these preconditions are unmatched for the objective reality of world politics and contrary to the practices of China's peaceful development as well as the mainstream trend of Sino-U. S. relationship. Therefore,it is an essential fallacy to apply the notion of Thucydides' Trap mechanically for the analytic research on the future relation between China and the U. S.