“营改增”的市场反应及影响因素——来自财税[2016]36号的经验证据

The Market Effect of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax” and its Impact Factors

本文运用事件研究法考察了"营改增"全面铺开(财税[2016]36号)对扩围行业的市场反应,并运用多元回归法从税收敏感度、雇佣和固定资产密度三个维度分析了该市场反应的影响因素。研究发现:整体而言,投资者将扩围行业试行"营改增"视为利好消息(市场反应显著为正),但不同行业"营改增"的市场反应有差异:投资者将建筑业视为利空消息,将房地产业及金融业视为利好消息,而对生活服务业持观望态度。进一步细分公司特征发现:高税收敏感度、非超额雇佣企业的市场反应更加积极,但固定资产密度与"营改增"的市场反应无显著关系。

This paper adopts the case study method to analyze the market reaction of the reform pilot policy（China [2016]36 of Financial and Taxation Policy） from the five expansion pilot industries to start. Meanwhile, it analyzes the interaction mechanism to the market reaction of the policy by multivariate regressive method from employment, tax sensitivity and fixed asset density. The empirical results show that the capital market has an active responding during the announcement of the policy as a whole. But the market effect varies from different industries： The investors the capital market has a passive responding to building industry. But there are active reactions to real estate and financial industry. The investors take a wait- and- see attitude toward the consumer services＇ reform. Furthermore, the market reactions are relatively active for the companies with high-tax sensitivity and no redundant labor. There is no significant correlation between the market reaction and fixed asset density.