中国5个城市2013-2015年空气质量健康指数模拟研究

Simulation study of air quality health index in 5 cities in China： 2013-2015

目的纳入PM2.5、O3两种空气污染物，构建广州、上海、西安、北京、沈阳市空气质量健康指数（AQHI），并探讨其在中国应用的科学性及可行性。方法利用Meta分析方法，提取中国空气PM2.5、O3与总死亡的暴露-反应系数、各城市日均死亡数、以及2013-2015年各城市PM2.5、O3日均值浓度，构建适用于5个城市的双污染物AQHI，分析5个城市空气污染健康风险等级分布特征，并与PM2.5、O3各单污染浓度的分布特征进行比较。结果5个城市中，PM2.5广州市平均浓度最低、北京市最高，分别为46μg／m3,82μg／m3；O3平均浓度西安市最低、上海市最高，分别为45μg／m3、72μg／m3。5个城市PM2.5均在冬季浓度最高，O3夏季浓度最低。AQHI健康风险提示5个城市以低、中风险为主，其中高风险频率北京市夏季最高，为5．69％，极高风险西安市冬季最高，频率为1．63％。结论构建的AQHI纳入了中国2种典型空气污染物PM2.5和O3该指数应用具有科学性及可行性。

Objective To construct the air quality health index （AQHI） by inclusion of air pollutants PM2.5 and O3 in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xi＇ an, Beijing, Shenyang, and explore scientificity and feasibility of its application in China. Methods The daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in air, and daily average mortality from 2013 to 2015 in the 5 cities in China, the exposure-response coefficients of PM2.5 and O3 and total mortality from Meta studies in China were used to construct local AQHI. The health risk levels of air pollution in the 5 cities were calculated and compared with the characteristics of single pollutant concentrationof PM2.5 or O3. Results In the 5 cities, the average concentration of PM2.5 was highest in Beijing （82 μg/m3） and lowest in Guangzhou （46 μg/m3）. And the average concentration of O3 was highest in Shanghai （72 μg/m3） and lowest in Xi＇ an （45 μg/m3）. In all the cities, the average concentration of PM2.5 was highest in winter and lowest in summer. In summer, the average concentration of O5 was lowest. But the health risk level of AQHI showed that the 5 cities had higher frequency of low or medium risk averagely. And Beijing had the highest frequency of high risk in summer （5.69%）. Xi＇ an had the highest frequency of extremely high risk in winter （1.63%）. Conclusions In this study, AQHI could be constructed by using air PM2.5 and O3 concentration data which can be obtained in many areas in China. The application of this index is scientific and feasible in China.