“自贸区驱动”能否驱动中国经济增长?——基于贸易福利视角的理论机制与实证论证

Could FTAs-driven Promote China's Economic Growth?——Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Demonstration Based on Trade and Welfare

新常态下中国经济增长的动力机制正谋求从"要素驱动"向"创新驱动"转变。基于对"创新驱动"的思考,本文对经济增长的"自贸区驱动"从贸易福利视角进行了理论机制和实证方面的论证。结果显示:"自贸区驱动"的理论基础是贸易创造与贸易转移以及消费者剩余与生产者剩余、关税收入等经济效应的相互抵消;自贸区可通过产生积极贸易效应和消除贸易障碍等贸易红利以及获得生产利得、消费利得和增加贸易商品多样性等福利效应驱动经济增长。GTAP模拟得出,正在研究的自贸区达成能够驱动中国外贸和福利增长,产生正向经济增长效应;不论横向还是纵向比较,"自贸区驱动"与贸易、福利增长均呈现正向联动变化。总之,"自贸区驱动"是能够驱动经济增长的"创新驱动"类型之一。

The dynamic mechanism of China＇s economic growth is transferring from the factors-driven to the innovation-driven in the new normal. Based on the thinking of ＂innovation-driven＂, the paper, using theoretical mechanism and empirical methods, demonstrates the FTAs-driven of economic growth from the angle of trade and welfare. The results show that the theoretical basis of the FTAs-driven is counteracting each other between trade creation and trade diversion, consumer surplus and producer surplus, as well as tariff income; FTAs can drive economic growth, by having positive trade effects and removing trade barriers, namely, trade dividends, and obtaining production gains, consumption gains and increasing the diversity of traded goods, namely, welfare effects. The results of GTAP simulation show that FTAs could drive the trade and welfare growth of China, with positive economic growth effects; whether horizontal or vertical comparison, there is a positive linkage change between the FTAsdriven ,trade growth and welfare growth. All in all, the FTAs-driven, as a kind of the innovation-driven, can drive economic growth.