开放经济条件下的产业政策有效性--来自光伏电池行业的经验证据

Effectiveness of Industrial Policy Under Open Economy——Evidence from PV Cells Industry

本文以光伏电池行业数据作为分析基础,建立了包括产业的健康程度、发展潜力、国内需求度和国际化程度的产业发展系统,并加入全球性外部冲击和针对性外部冲击以考察产业政策的扶持效果。分析结果表明,无论是产业规模政策还是产业创新政策,都没有得到产业健康发展和产业潜力正常发挥的理想结果,"消费红利"的被迫国际化,造成产业发展受制于国际市场,背离培育该产业的初衷。因此,在以创新带动产业发展的同时,补全供需关系、刺激市场需求,使产业市场能够在政策"离场"后持续健康地发展,才是正确的政策着力点。

This paper analysis effects of industrial policies with an industrial developing system including the industry＇s health, development potential, domestic demand degrees and the international system, based on data of the PV cells industry, with global external shocks and targeted external shocks as well. The results show that, neither the scale of industrial policies nor innovation policies are ideal for healthy development and potential working of the industry,and ＂ consumer dividend＂, forced to be international, results in the industry subject to international markets, deviating from the original intention of developing the industry. Therefore, besides promoting innovation, corn pleting the relationship between supply and demand and stimulating market demand is the right point, so that industry can still be developed continuously and healthily without policies.