从美国经济政策历史演变看特朗普新政效果

The effect of Trump＇s policies： learning from the historic evolution of US economic policies

该文试图通过梳理美国经济政策的演变逻辑来分析判断美国经济发展前景。从历史角度看，决定美国未来经济走势的有三方面主要因素：金融监管、财政政策和加息节奏。从目前情况看，特朗普新政很可能沿用以往宽松金融监管、中性财政政策和渐进加息的路径。相较而言，这一政策模式易导致更大的金融市场振荡和实体经济波动。

This essay tries to analyze the evolution logic of US economic policies and judge the prospect of US economy. From a historical point of view, there are three main factors determining the future economic trend of the United States, which are financial regulation, fiscal policy and pace of interest rate hikes. Judging by the current situation, president Trump is likely to adopt a set of economic policies including loose financial regulations, neutral fiscal policies and slow hikes of interest rate. Compared with other policy combination, these polices tend to result in greater financial market fluctuations and higher volatilities in the real economy.