城市规模异质性与农民工城市就业的替代效应——基于参数和半参数面板数据估计

City Scale and Employment Substitution of Migrant Workers——Estimated of Parameter and Semi-parameter on Panel Data

本文采用中国综合社会调查2005~2013年数据,根据受教育程度、地区、工作经验和城市规模的差异,构建了一个包含农民工数量和本地市民就业率等变量的面板数据。运用参数和半参数估计方法,揭示出农民工城市进入会降低本地市民就业率,但是存在城市规模异质性。农民工进入对特大城市本地市民就业率的影响表现出先下降再提高的规律,对大城市本地市民就业的影响表现为先提高后下降再提高的趋势,对中小城市本地市民就业率的影响则表现出先下降再提高再下降的规律。此外,农民工城市进入对本地市民就业率的影响还存在经济发展程度上的异质性,在经济发达地区表现出提升本地市民就业,在经济欠发达地区则表现为降低本地市民就业。

To construct a panel data of migrant workers and employment, this paper uses China General Social Survey （CGSS） data by the categories of city scale, education, area and experience. The resuh shows that the entrance of migrant workers can decrease native citizens employment through using parametric and semi-parametric method. But there is a city scale heterogonous. In megalopolis, the impact of migrant workers on native citizens employment is decrease firstly, and then increase. And for the big cities, the relationship is increase firstly, and then decreases, and finally increases. But for the small and medium cities, the relationship is decrease firstly, and then increases, and finally decreases. This paper also finds that the effect of migrant worker on the native citizens employ is determined by the economic growth of the working cities. In developed area, the entrance of migrant worker can enhance the native citizens employment rate, and vice verse.