产业结构优化与区域经济收敛的门槛效应研究

A Study on the Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Optimization on Economic Convergence in China

以经济开放度作为门槛变量,采用1997-2014年省级面板数据,通过面板门槛模型实证检验了产业结构优化和区域经济收敛之间的门槛效应。结果表明,中国省域经济在产业结构优化过程中存在收敛现象;产业结构优化与区域经济收敛之间存在显著的双重门槛效应,经济开放水平的变动对二者关系的影响呈现出一定的阶段性特征;在任意门槛区间下,产业结构优化对区域经济收敛都存在显著的促进作用,但随着经济开放水平的提高,其影响程度会稍有下降。

This paper takes the level of openness as the threshold and builds a panel threshold model. With the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2014, the paper examines how the industrial structure optimization influences regional economic convergence in China. The results show that the provincial economy in China converges in the process of industrial structure optimization, that there exists a significant double threshold effect of industrial structure optimization on regional economic convergence and a periodical feature with the effect of openness on the main relationship, and that the industrial structure optimization promotes economic convergence significantly, while the influence reduces a bit with the increase of economic openness.