基于时间序列法的广西原糖价格预测

The forecast of Guangxi sugar price by Time Series Methods

【目的】为了了解广西原糖价格的未来走势,掌握原糖价格的变动情况。【方法】使用时间序列法中的季节性ARIMA模型,分析2001年1月至2016年4月183个月份数据,预测广西原糖2016年5月至2017年4月的价格。【结果】广西原糖价格在2016年上半年一直保持着平稳状态,但自下半年起,原糖价格逐渐上升并在11月达到全年价格顶点,在12月时原糖价格出现明显回落现象,2017年的1-4月的原糖价格没有较大幅度波动。【结论】时间序列法的的预测精度较高,可以得到较准确的广西原糖价格的趋势图。

[ Objective ]In order to understand the future of Guangxi sugar prices, grasps the sugar price changes.[ Method ]Applying the seasonal ARIMA mode to analyze 183 month data that is from January 2001 to April 2016 and predict the sugar price from May 2016 to April 2017; [ Results ]Predicted results show a gradual rise in price and reach the price of annual peak in November, but on December, the price appears fall phenomenon clearly. There are no big fluctuations of sugar price from January to April in 2017; [ Conclusion ] The forecasting accuracy of time series method is better, obtain more accurate tendency chart for Guangxi sugar prices.