济南市小清河流域汛期降水时空演变规律分析

The spatial-temporal evolution law of flood season precipitation in Xiaoqing River Basin of Jinan

以济南市小清河黄台桥水文站断面以上流域内7个雨量站1977-2013年的逐日降水量长序列资料为基础,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法和5a滑动平均法分析流域汛期降水量的变化趋势,利用方差谱密度图法分析汛期降水量的周期成分,用有序聚类法识别和检验汛期降水量的突变成分,并利用R/S分析法对流域汛期降水量变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:济南市小清河流域各雨量站汛期降水量时间演变趋势一致,呈增长趋势;有明显的空间分布特征,符合中国降水分布的整体格局;流域7个雨量站汛期降水量未来变化趋势均为增长。研究成果为济南市水资源可持续开发利用和海绵城市建设提供了基础依据。

Based on the long - term daily precipitation data from 7 rainfall stations in the upstream of Huangtaiqiao hydrological station in Xiaoqing River Basin of Jinan from 1977 to 2013, the Mann - Kendall rank correlation test method, and the five -year moving average method were used for variation trends, the variance spectral density diagram method was applied for period component, the sequence clustering analysis method was used for detecting and testing mutation component, and the R/S analysis method was used to analyze the variations of flood season precipitation at the basin. The results showed that： the temporal evolu- tion trends of flood season precipitation of different rainfall stations in Xiaoqing River Basin of Jinan were similar and had upward trends. Their spatial distributionshad obvious characteristics, which conforms to the overall pattern of Chinese precipitation distribution. Future trends of flood season precipitation at all of the 7 rainfall stations were upward. This research provided basic references for the resources sustainable development and construction of sponge city in Jinan.