基于目标模式的省区部门碳配额分配研究——以北京市为例

Research on Carbon Quotas Allocation among Provincial Sectors Based on Target Pattern:A Case Study of Beijing

实现2030年碳峰值是中国政府向全世界做出的负责任承诺,而达峰前碳排放空间分配是实现该承诺的必要条件。在对全球主要国家的部门碳排放数据系统聚类基础上,研究构建了一个融合国家、部门和省区的碳配额分配模型,以此评价未来省区部门的碳排放空间及其配额分配模式偏好的差异。研究结果表明:(1)未来中国可选择的部门碳排放目标模式有美国模式、欧盟模式和中国模式;(2)与传统碳的配额分配流程相比,基于目标模式的改进流程可减少省区部门碳配额分配结果的不确定性,且更具有动态性和前瞻性;(3)不同目标模式下,省区部门碳配额分配结果差距较大。就北京市而言,美国模式和欧盟模式下运输部门所得配额远大于制造业和建筑业部门,而中国模式下恰好相反。从目标模式偏好程度来看,北京市最偏好欧盟模式。

China has made a responsible commitment to the world as achieving its carbon emissions peak by 2030. To fulfill this commitment, allocating carbon quotas is necessary. Based on the system clustering on sectoral carbon emissions data of major countries, this paper builds a carbon quotas allocation model, which integrating national, sectoral and provincial levels to assess the result of provincial sector quotas and the pattern preference. The study results show that： （1） there are three types of target patterns for sector quotas allocation which China can choose in the future： the US model, EU model and China model; （2） compared with the traditional process for quota allocation, the improvement process based on target pattern can reduce the uncertainty of allocation result, and are more dynamic and forward-looking; （3） under different target patterns, the result of carbon quota allocation among provinces sectors show difference. For Beijing, the carbon quotas in the transport sector under the US and the EU model are much greater than those in manufacturing and construction sector, while it is just the opposite under the China model. From the point of view of the target pattern preference, Beijing prefers the EU pattern.