基于Delphi和DEMATEL法影响国网的颠覆性创新技术影响因素综合排序分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Disruptive Innovations in the State Grid and the Comprehensive Ranking Based on Delphi and DEMATEL Method

构建对国网有影响的颠覆性创新技术指标体系,利用Delphi法对国网中出现的颠覆性创新技术进行了调查分析,得出专家的积极性、权威性和变异系数,进一步由Delphi法专家打分计算出指标权重;基于DEMATEL法和专家对各个指标之间的相互影响关系,对影响国网的这些因素进行分析研究,进行算例分析,得出各个指标的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度和综合影响度,分析各个指标影响因素的重要影响程度,为国网公司应对颠覆性创新技术提供参考。

It is very important and practical for State Grid corporation to make an analysis on the importance of the influen- cing factors of disruptive innovations and their ranking. Firstly, this paper builds an index system of disruptive innovation technology that may have affected State Grid corporation. At the same time, Delphi method is used to make a survey analysis to those disruptive innovation technologies, and obtain experts＇ initiative, authority and the variation coefficient. Further, the paper calculates the index weight by Delphi expert scoring method. Then, based on DEMATEL method and expert analysis, the paper studies the relationship among various indicators which may influence State Grid corporation. Based on study analysis, we can get influence degree, affected degree, centralized degree, cause degree and combined effects de- gree. The analysis on the importance degree of each factor can provide a references for State Grid corporation to deal with disruptive innovations.