车险费率厘定精算技术的研究与应用评述

Research and Application Review of Actuarial Techniques in Vehicle Insurance Ratemaking

精算技术为中国车险市场费率改革提供必要支持,可以确保费率厘定的科学性与合理性。首先,本文系统梳理了车险分类风险费率厘定精算统计模型的发展历程,并回顾参数估计方法。其次,论述了车险个体风险费率厘定的精算模型与方法,并重点评述了信度理论与奖惩系统的研究。进而,归纳出车险费率厘定精算统计模型的研究热点与发展方向。最后,指明现有研究对中国车险费率厘定精算方法的启示,并提出相关建议。

Actuarial techniques provide the necessary support for rate reform of vehicle insurance market in China,which can ensure the accurateness and rationality of ratemaking.First of all,this paper runs through the development course of auto insurance classification ratemaking models,as well as estimation methods of their parameters.Secondly,the paper discusses the actuarial models and methods of auto insurance individual risk ratemaking,and focuses on the study of credibility theory and Bonus-Malus System.Furthermore,the paper sums up the research hotspot and future development of actuarial and statistical models on auto insurance ratemaking.At last,inspiration of existing research to actuarial models and methods of China＇s auto insurance ratemaking are pointed out,as well as recommendations are made.