空气污染与肺癌入院关系的灰色关联分析

Correlation between air pollution and hospital admissions of lung cancer: grey incidence analysis

目的采用灰色关联分析探索北京市PM10、SO2和NO2长期暴露与居民肺癌发病相关性及其在健康结局研究方面的应用。方法收集2004年1月—2010年12月北京市大气PM10、SO2和NO2日平均浓度和气象因素日平均值以及北京市肿瘤医院2008—2010年的肺癌患者就诊资料,以北京市肺癌入院人数作为参考数列,以大气污染指标和气象指标作为比较数列,进行大气污染与居民肺癌入院数的灰色关联分析。结果不同污染物与北京市肺癌月均入院数的灰色关联度排序为PM10〉NO2〉SO2;与累积1-3年污染物滑动平均浓度数列相比,累积4年的污染物滑动平均浓度数列与肺癌入院的关联度最大。结论本研究涉及的三种污染物中,对肺癌入院影响最大的是PM10。灰色关联方法在空气污染与肺癌的相关性方面的应用有待进一步探索,需在进一步研究中补充更为详实和长期的数据。

Objective To investigate the relationship between air pollution and lung cancer hospital admissions in Beijing via grey incidence analysis, and the applicability of grey incidence analysis in terms of environmental health effects. Methods The daily average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10were collected, as well as meteorological data during 2004 and 2010 in Beijing, China. Meanwhile, the data of hospital admissions due to lung cancer during 2008 and 2010 from Cancer Center of Beijing were obtained. Grey incidence method was used to explore the association between the hospital admissions of lung cancer and the air pollutants in Beijing. Results The descending order of the degree of grey incidence（DGI） value associated with lung cancer admissions was PM10NO2SO2. The four-year moving average concentration of pollutants had the largest DGI value associated with admissions of lung cancer compared with the one to three-year moving average concentration of pollutants, respectively. Among the three pollutants, the largest DGI value was observed between PM10 and admissions of lung cancer, with the value of 0.027. Conclusion Among the three pollutants（PM10,NO2,SO2）,PM10 has the largest impact on admissions of lung cancer. It is found that grey incidence analysis can be used for the relationship between air pollutants and admissions of lung cancer, but it is still needed to verify it with more detailed and long-term data.