2016年南亚地区经济发展形势与展望

The Situation and Prospect of Economic Development in South Asia in 2016

2016年世界大宗商品价格低位运行,金融市场稳定性脆弱,经济增长疲软,但南亚仍然显现出巨大的韧性和回旋余地,成为世界上经济增长最快的地区。特别是印度,由于其经济总量在南亚地区举足轻重,其强劲的增长拉动了整个南亚经济的较快增长。2016年尽管不少南亚国家进出口贸易出现增长,但由于印度下降幅度较大,影响了整个南亚贸易增长。由于进口减少,国际收支不平衡状况有所缓解。外汇储备和物价总体水平基本保持稳定。但南亚经济发展也面临许多问题,多数国家改革进展缓慢,投资增长不如预期,工业增长减缓,就业形势严峻。预计2017年随着世界经济复苏及印度废除大额现钞影响降低,南亚地区经济表现仍然可期。

In 2016,the world's commodity prices are low,the stability of the financial market is fragile and the economic growth is weak.However,South Asia shows great toughness and leeway and become the fastest growing region in the world.India,with its economic aggregate in South Asia,has played a decisive role in rapid growth in the South Asian economy.Foreign trade in most countries in South Asia grew in 2016,but India weighed on the whole South Asian trade growth due to its great trade decline.Imbalance of payments in South Asia eased due to imports slumping.Foreign exchange reserves and the overall level of prices remained stable.However,the economic development of South Asia also faces many problems,such as reform process is slow,investment growth is less than expected,industrial growth slows down and the employment situation is grim in most countries.It is expected that economic performance in South Asia will be expected in 2017 with the world economy recovers and India's negative effects of abolition of large cash bills reduced.