地缘环境系统模拟研究探讨

Views on the study of geopolitical environment system simulation

地缘环境系统研究是认知国际地缘政治态势、保障国家战略顺利实施的科学支撑。近年来,在国际地缘战略调整、经济全球化和技术进步等要素的驱动下,地缘环境系统研究的内涵与外延都发生了巨大变化。分析地缘环境要素的变化,预估地缘环境演变趋势并提出应对风险的措施,既是地缘环境研究的重要内容,也是实施国家战略的重要科技保障。本文回顾了地缘环境系统研究的学科发展历程及国内外的最新进展,系统梳理了地缘环境系统模拟的理论和方法体系。研究表明,地缘环境系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,具有层次性、地域性、综合性等特征。针对特定的地缘问题,可以采取分层次、合理概化、数值逼近等方法进行系统模拟。同时,大数据技术逐渐成为地缘环境系统研究的新范式,通过异构数据挖掘、机器学习、高性能计算等方法,可望发现纷繁复杂的地缘环境系统中蕴含的要素关联关系,预测与干涉系统演化过程,为地缘环境问题的解决提供新的技术手段。

The term of geopolitical environment refers to the combination of both natural and social environment. Geopolitical environment system is a gigantic and complex system which consists of physical element （e.g. topography, geomorphology, water and land resources, meteorological conditions, etc.） and social economic elements （society, ethic, culture, politics etc.）. The research of the geopolitical environment system simulation is a scientific support to the understanding of the international geostrategic dynamics and successfully implement the national strategy. In recent years, the connotation and extension of the geopolitical environment system research have changed dramatically due to the international geo-strategic shift, the global economy and technical progress. This paper presents a review of the origin and development of the geopolitical theory, from classical geopolitics before World War Two to the geopolitics during the cold war period, and the geopolitical researches in post-cold war era. The integration of geopolitics and earth system sciences has brought new advances both in the disciplines and methodology in these areas. The key issues of the simulation of the geopolitical environment system include the dynamic changes of the geopolitical factors, the interaction and adaption of the multiple geopolitical environment factors, methods for establishing the geopolitical environment system and virtual geographical environment techniques. The results indicated that faced with these complicated nonlinear problems like ＂geopolitical environment system＂, the hierarchical, reasonable generalization of the model and the numerical approximation methods can achieve the results of quantitative analysis for specific geopolitical issues. Meanwhile, the big data technology is increasingly providing a new paradigm for the studies of geopolitical system. By the methods of heterogeneous data mining, machine learning and high-performance computing, it is expected to explore the associated relationships among the elements contained in the geopolitical environment system to forecast and intervene in the geopolitical environment system evolution, and to provide a new technical method for the solutions to geopolitical issues.