社会福利影响农村消费的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Social Welfare on Rural Consumption

2012年以来,中国农村居民消费增速连续四年超过城镇,但城乡消费严重失衡,农村消费比重过低,释放农村消费潜力是当前亟需解决的重要问题。除收入水平外,社会福利是影响消费的重要因素,通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR),实证检验了社会福利中公共卫生、基础教育、基础设施和社会保障对农村消费的影响。结果表明:公共卫生服务和基础设施建设是影响农村居民消费的主要因素。因此,以基本公共服务均等化为重点的福利结构优化,以强化基础设施为支撑的福利环境改善,是撬动农村消费的关键。

Since 2012, Chinese rural residents＇ consumption has grown for four consecutive years over the town. How- ever the actual consumption between the rural residents and urban residents is seriously imbalanced, the proportion of rural consumption is too low, therefore the most urgent issue is how to release the huge potential of rural consumption. In addition to the income level, the level of social welfare is an important factor affecting the consumption. This paper, by establishing vector autoregression （VAR） model, empirically explores the impact of public health, basic education, in- frastructure and social security of the social welfare on rural consumption. The results show that the main factors affecting the consumption of rural residents are public health services and infrastructure construction. Therefore, to optimize the social welfare structure by emphasizing the equal access to basic public services and to improving the social welfare envi- ronment by strengthening the infrastructure is the key to leveraging the huge rural consumption.