半定量不确定性分析方法在深圳市大气污染物排放清单的应用

The Application of Semi-quantitative Uncertainty Analysis Method in Shenzhen Air Pollution Emission Inventory Development

利用半定量不确定性分析方法,通过对活动水平来源、排放因子和参数以及核算方法等不确定性等级划定,系统对深圳市各类污染源综合不确定性等级进行分析。结果显示,非道路机械、扬尘源、生物质燃烧源、农业源和废弃物处理源综合不确定性比较高,是深圳市大气污染源排放清单优化和改进的重点领域和方向。

By using the method of semi-quantitative uncertainty analysis, the uncertainty level of various pollution sources in Shenzhen is analyzed by defining the uncertainty level of activity level sources, emission factors and parameters, and estimation methods. The results show that the comprehensive uncertainty of non-road machinery, dust source, biomass burning source, agricultural source and waste disposal source is relatively high, which is the key field and direction of optimization and improvement of air pollution emission inventory in Shenzhen.