环保政策、治污努力程度与生态环境质量——基于三部门DSGE模型的数值分析

Environmental policy,Anti-pollution Effort Degree and Ecological Environment Quality—Simulation Analysis Based on Three-sector DSGE Model

本文通过构建包含环保政策因素的三部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究环保政策、政府治污支出及环境消费偏好等措施对宏观经济的动态效应,尤其是对实际碳排放量和生态环境质量的影响,并在此基础上分析各项措施的传导机制。研究发现:(1)环保技术改善能够在保持经济增长的基础上,显著降低碳排放,提高环境质量;(2)征收碳税以及提升环境消费偏好均能够显著改善环境质量,但对经济增长存在一定的负效应;(3)政府治污支出能够显著降低碳排放量和提高环境质量,但中长期内会对宏观经济产生负效应,通过调整政府治污支出转化系数,能够显著提高政府治污支出措施的有效性。总体上,环保技术与治污支出是保持经济增长与环境质量协调发展的关键,提升厂商的环保技术研发水平与加大治污力度应是现阶段政策制定的参考重点。

This paper build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（ DSGE） model containing environmental policy factors ,to research the dynamic effects of environmental policy, government spending and environment consumer preferences on macro economy, especially for the actual carbon emissions and ecological environment quality, and analysis the transmission mechanism of measures. The study showed that： （ 1 ） Improving environmental protection technology can reduce the actual car-bon emissions and emission reductions, improve the quality of the ecological environment effectively with economic growth. （2） Levying the carbon tax and improving the environment consumer preferences can significantly improve the quality of envi-ronment, but have a certain negative effects on economic growth. （3） The government spending of pollution treatment can sig-nificantly reduce carbon emissions and improve the environment quality, but has the negative effects on macroeconomic in a long term. Adjusting the government spending conversion coefficient of pollution treatment can significantly improve the effec-tiveness of government spending measures. In short, the environmental protection technology and pollution spending are the key to sustain economic growth and environmental quality coordinated development. Enhancing the technology research level and increasing the pollution regulation intensity will be the policy guidance＇s reference point at the present stage.