不对称合作中的政治风险与关系维持——以新世纪以来的中斯关系为例

Political Risks and the Maintenance of Asymmetric Cooperation:Sino-Sri Lanka Relations in the New Century

现实中国际关系的合作常常是不对称性合作。随着国内—国际互动的加深,不对称合作关系的维持变得更加困难。一个重要现象或趋势是:转型国家的政治转向未减反增,导致大国与之发展不对称合作时不得不面临更大的政治风险。如何认知威胁并维持不对称关系的稳定是决策者和学术界共同面对的难题。为解答该问题,本文在梳理现有理论解释的基础上,引入策略互动视角,提出:以危机援助、相互战略保证、第三方非正式协调等作为主要手段的策略互动是政治风险弱化、不对称关系维持的关键,并以新世纪以来的中斯关系为例验证其适用性。该结论对于我国推进"一带一路"建设,探索与周边小国互动新思路具有重要启示。

Asymmetric cooperation is the normalcy in international cooperation. With the development of interactions between domestic and international sectors,it becomes more difficult to maintain the relations of asymmetric cooperation. A highlighted phenomenon or tendency demonstrates that political turns of transitional countries become more frequent,which lead to unexpected political risks for great powers when promoting asymmetric cooperation. To understand the threat and maintain the asymmetric cooperation are the common challenge faced by decision-makers and academics. To answer this question,the paper,based on analysis of existing theories,attempts to introduce the perspective of strategic interactions,and argues that strategic interactions are the keys to risk mitigation and cooperation maintenance,which comprises assistance in crisis,mutual strategic assurance and informal coordination of third party. The paper also verifies the applicability of strategic interaction with the case of Sino-Sri Lanka relationship in the new century. The conclusion has important implications for China in the further construction of ＂Belt and Road＂,providing new perspective to promote interaction with small countries in the neighborhood.