战略互疑、安全困境与中美关系解析

Strategic Distrust,Security Dilemma and the Analysis of Sino-America Relations

战略互疑已经成为影响中美关系的核心问题,对其成因的既有阐释更多地强调引起互疑的制度差异、文化观念及力量对比、错误知觉等因素。本文在梳理并准确定义"安全困境"的基础上探讨了战略互疑形成的原因。文章认为,战略互疑根源于安全困境的结构性因素并因安全困境的激发性因素而升级。严重的战略互疑可能会造成误判,引发螺旋情景甚至导致双方的战略对立或持久对立。国家间的安全困境不能从结构上消除,但是双方的相互战略保证和决心可以缓解引发安全困境的结构性因素。克制、沟通与合作有利于消解安全困境的激发性因素从而减轻双方的战略互疑程度。

Strategic distrust has become the core issue of the Sino-America relations. Existing interpretations stress factors of differences in regime,culture or power. Focused upon an examination of the security dilemma theory,the article proposes a more accurate definition of security dilemma in order to explore into reasons that give rise to the strategic distrust between China and the United States. The study argues that strategic distrust is rooted in structural factors of security dilemma,and it is aggravated by motivational factors caused by the physical and psychological changes as well as other frustrating actions. Serious mutual distrust may cause erroneous judgements,initiate spirals and even lead to the strategic opposition or even long-term confrontation. Security dilemma cannot be fundamentally eliminated among countries,but mutual strategic reassurance and determination can ease structural factors that cause security dilemma.Meanwhile,restraint,communication and cooperation are conducive to resolving motivational factors of the security dilemma,which is to degrade level of bilateral strategic distrust.