利率对投资的作用机制初探——基于货币市场视角

Preliminary Exploration on the Role of Interest Rateon Investment Under the Perspective of Monetary Market

利率是经济中最受关注的变量之一,在经济发展中起到了越来越重要的作用。本文以对利率的界定为契机,尝试性地将投资分为实体投资与投机性投资,并分析了实体投资对宏观经济的重要作用;通过引用投资模型分析了利率的变动对实体投资与投机性投资的作用机制,并利用货币市场的均衡模型来分析如何通过市场利率的变动来影响实体投资,从而影响一个国家的经济产出以及就业规模,但由于流动性陷阱的存在,对利率的这种影响机制形成制约。接着,本文利用了LM模型分析了利率如何影响投机性投资,进而影响实体经济。得出了与流动性陷阱具有一致性的结论。目前,我国利率市场化已经进入新的阶段,推进了货币政策对利率的影响,促进了我国在制定货币政策时,要充分考虑到利率对实体投资与投机性投资的影响,从而制定适合我国宏观经济状况的货币政策,在有限的资源的条件下,促进我国经济的合理增长,保证合理的就业规模。

Interest rate is one of the most important variables in the economy, which plays a more and more important role in economic development. This paper begins from the definition of interest rate, and makes attempts to divide investments into the real investments and speculative investments, and also analyzes the important role of the entity investment to the macro economy. By citing the investment model, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the effect of interest rate changes on the real investment and speculative investment, and use the equilibrium model of money market to analyze how to affect the entity investment through the change of market interest rate, thus affecting a country＇s economic output and employment scale. But because of the exist of liquidity trap, this function of interest rate has been restricted. Then, this paper uses the LM model to analyze the affection of interest rate to the speculative investment, which is furthermore influence the real economy, the result coincides with liquidity trap. Nowerdays, in China, the market-oriented reforms of interest rate have been on a new stage, which has promoted the influence of currency policy to interest rate. The full consideration of the influence of interest rate to real and speculative investment will be made by the government, when making currency policies. Thus, reasonable economic growth will be promoted and reasonableemployment scale will be guaranteed under the condition of limited resources.