关于我国消费信贷与经济增长研究——基于VECM模型的分析

The Study in Consumer Credit and Economic Growth on VECM Model

消费信贷对经济增长有两方面重要影响:一是作为扩大居民消费的长效机制,有利于经济增长,同时会引致汽车等部分产行业的投资增加和效率改善;二是可能会降低部分产行业的资金供给,并通过资金的供求错配而抑制部分产行业的规模扩张。本文利用2007-2015年数据,以VECM模型为基础,对消费信贷与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。分析结果表明:消费信贷的扩张在中长期内会促进投资和消费的增长,但同时必须谨防短期内消费信贷过热对工业部门带来的挤出效应。

The consumer credit has two effects on the economic growth in China.On the one hand, as a long-term mechanism to expand consumption, consumer credit has a positive effect to expand the investment and economic growth. On the other hand, excessive consumer credit may inhibit the capital needs of some industries.In this paper, we made a VECM empirical analysis based on consumer credit and economic growth using the 2007-2015 year data. The results show that the expansion of consumer credit will promote long-term investment and consumption growth, but we must guard against that excessive consumer credit in the short term will bring crowding out investment in the industrial sector.