大型城市小汽车限行政策对城市交通系统影响的分析——以天津市为例

The Influence of License Plate Restriction Policy on Urban Traffic System in Metropolises——A Case Study of Tianjin City

限行政策已经在我国多个大城市推广使用,但是目前对于限行政策对城市交通系统的作用机理,以及深入的效果评价还存在不足。本文通过问卷调查和数据分析方法对小汽车限行政策的效果进行了评价,发现天津市的小汽车限行政策取得了一定的直接效果,但其引发的一些个体出行行为改变可能会导致交通结构的变化,进而对城市交通系统的长期发展带来影响。在此基础上,本文提出了限行政策的定位,试图对于城市交通管理部门的政策制定和改进提供一定参考。

The policy of license plate restriction has been employed in China in many metropolises. However, it is still not clear how the policy influences urban traffic system, and lacks the estimation of its effectiveness. This study aims to carry out the effect of the policy through analyzing the questionnaire and empirical data. The results show that the policy has achieved some good results, but it also changes the travel behavior of some individuals, which further possibly influence the urban traffic system in long term. Finally, we propose the role of license plate restriction policy and make some suggestions for transport planners and concerned governors.