南方双膜塑料大棚内气温的谐波模拟

Harmonic Simulation of Air Temperature in Double Membrane Greenhouses in South China

目前针对南方双膜塑料大棚棚内温度模拟的研究较少,普适性也有待近一步提高。本研究基于2010—2014年的南方代表性塑料大棚内外气象观测数据,利用谐波法构建适用于南方地区双膜覆盖塑料大棚棚内温度的逐小时预报模型。结果表明:2阶谐波(基波+2次谐波)能较好地反映南方双膜覆盖大棚内温度的变化特征。基于棚外温度的谐波特征参量及其他气象要素构建的棚内温度预报模型,能较好地模拟不同天气情况下(晴、多云、阴)双膜覆盖大棚的棚内温度日变化。模型回代检验结果显示不同天气条件下绝对误差的日平均值小于1.8℃。模型对不同时间段棚内温度的模拟精度呈夜间>白天,对棚内日最低温度的模拟效果突出,不同天气条件下最低温度的预报的绝对误差均低于1.2℃,模型对最高温度的预报精度较最低温度偏低0.5~1℃。

Studies on temperature simulation for double membrane greenhouses are still at the preliminarystage, and the universality of the simulation model needs to be further improved. In this study, the harmonicmethod was employed to simulate the air temperature variation inside the double membrane greenhouses basedon the meteorological data observed from 2010 to 2014. The results indicated that： 2 order harmonic model（1stand 2nd harmonic） could well simulate the temperature variation inside greenhouses with double membrane;the temperature variation inside the greenhouse with double membrane could be well simulated with the modelbased on the harmonic parameters of outside temperature; the daily mean errors of the model＇s backwardsubstitution were all less than 1.8℃ under different weather conditions; the daily mean error of temperatureforecasting was（1.9±1.4）℃,（2.1±1.6）℃ and（1.7±1.3）℃ for sunny day, partly cloudy day and overcast day,respectively; the model＇s simulation accuracy in nighttime was higher than that in daytime; the model was withgood performance when it was used to forecast the minimum temperature as the absolute error was all less than1.2℃ under different weather conditions; the simulation accuracy for maximum temperature was 0.5 to 1℃lower than that of minimum temperature.