变化的浪潮

Changing tides

加利福尼亚海的阵阵暖风轻抚着在长滩举行的TPM年会，也掩盖了集装箱航运业的重大改变。这些变化标志着集装箱班轮的转折点已至，还是将延续可能引发另一起韩进事件的低运价。

Trans-Pacific ocean carriers' newfound discipline on capacity could yield higher rates from shippers in the coming year — if they don't fold under the pressure. The warm California ocean breezes wafting through this year's TPM Conference in Long Beach will belie seismic changes in the container shipping industry. But will those changes mark a turnaround for container lines or the continuation of unsustainable rates that threaten more Hanjin-like collapses? For trans-Pacific container lines under intense financial pressure after five years of collective losses measuring in the tens of billions of dollars, the end-game is to convince beneficial cargo owners that higher service contract rates are a reality, and that the record-low rates of as little as $750 per 40-foot container in the contracting season that will end in two months can't and won't recur. This time around, container lines are seeking eastbound rates of at least $1,500 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,800 to the East Coast, according to analysts and carrier executives. Depending on the relationship with the customer, how the contract is structured, and how much volume is committed, carriers may settle for West Coast rates of $1,000, and $2,300 to the East Coast, a container line executive told JOC.com on the condition of anonymity. These are hardly major advances, considering a $1,600 to $1,700 rate was once considered poor, the executive said. Another CEO, Mediterranean Shipping Co.'s Diego Aponte, was more blunt: 'Enough is enough, and now it is about time that our industry recovers a bit what we lost in the past years, and Ithink we are on the right track,' he told The Journal of Commerce in an early-February interview in Geneva. 'I was really positively surprised at what has happened' over the past year. Complicating those negotiations are the yet-to-be announced service networks of the Ocean and THE alliances — two of the three restructured global shipping partnerships that will launch on April 1. The uncertainty around those networks has cast shippers into a wait-and-see mode until information on sailing dates, port rotations, and transit times becomes available. Speculation abounds about why the alliances haven't provided details of their networks. With little in terms of service to discuss, conversations invariably turn to rates, according to Dave Arsenault, former president and CEO of Hyundai Merchant Marine Americas, and now a consultant. The lack of information from the alliances 'brings in a level of uncertainty among BCOs right now who are going into contract season and are buying services that they're not completely sure what they will look like,' Arsenault told the Georgia Foreign Trade Conference in Sea Island, Georgia, in early February. 'What are the transits? What are the rotations? That certainly make it more challenging from a carrier standpoint to try to sell service at rates that have adequate returns when there is an uncertainty about what it is that they are really going to be selling. Carriers can point to how eastbound spot rates are up nearly 50 percent compared to last year and that capacity discipline has moderated the typical spot rate plunge when demand slumps at the beginning of and immediate aftermath of Chinese New Year. Vessel utilization also has been strong, with carriers operating at no less than 98 percent capacity on routes to the Pacific Northwest, Los Angeles-Long Beach, and the US East Coast, according to figures from the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, a discussion group representing most of the major carriers in the trade. If it is, shippers still shouldn't be seduced by the relative calm and carrier stability because the launch of new alliances could disrupt marine terminal operations. Experts say they see trouble coming a mile away, in part because problems are inevitable any time a marine terminal's normal routine is disrupted. It could be that larger ships begin to call on different days of the week, or volumes suddenly spike, or, simply, organizations begin to interact with those they had never worked with before. That's the scenario BCOs will face in a little more than a month, particularly at ports with multiple terminals, such as Los Angeles and Long Beach. A variety of changes to the normal routine will occur virtually overnight. Recent port data suggests that at least some BCOs that anticipate problems are diverting cargo to ports that are unlikely to experience disruption. The alliance reshuffling was triggered by last year's carrier consolidation, creating three east-west alliances out of the four that currently exist. This includes the creation of the Ocean and THE alliances as well as the 2M Alliance teaming up with Hyundai Merchant Marine and Maersk's slot-charter with Hamburg Sud on east-west routes. The 2M-HMM tie-up, although short of a formal alliance, still shows that no alliance will be untouchedby changes this spring.