特朗普的成功及其限度:兼论中美经贸关系

The Donald Trump Era and China-US Trade Relations

特朗普成功当选美国总统的关键在于,他顺应时势识别出了美国内部大约一半人口特别关注但却一直未被认真触及的问题:如全球化带来的不平等、种族、华盛顿—华尔街等问题。然而,特朗普在施政过程中将面临国内制度性、官僚体系、既得利益集团和民众的四大掣肘。中美之间在贸易投资领域不可避免地存在分歧与争端,又要共同努力把难以规避的分歧与争端控制在有限范围内,使其不至于影响中美经贸关系的基本稳定大局。特朗普当政后推行的是基于狭隘国家利益的"公平贸易",中美之间全面的贸易战打不起来。

Donald Trump has recognized challenges that about half of the American population have realized but have seldom been seriously tackled,such as inequality,racialism and Washington-Wall Street relations,and promised to solve those problems,which proves a key to his success of winning the US presidency.However,in implementing his policies,Trump will be subject to constraints from domestic systems,bureaucracy,vested interest groups and the public.China and the US are faced with inevitable trade and investment differences and disputes.They need to join hands to put those differences under control so that they will not undermine the basic regime of China-US trade relations.Although Trump’s trade stance,which can be summarized as national interest-based'fair trade',is parochial,there will not be a full-scale trade war between the two economies.