俄罗斯经济新观察：危机与转机

Russian Economy: Crisis and Turning Point

以经济衰退与宏观经济不稳定并行显现为内涵界定的俄罗斯经济危机,诱因来自于外部,但根源却在内部。经济危机加重了矛盾,但也催生了变革,进而迎来了转机。俄罗斯正在走出经济危机状态,但并不意味同时就是在走出经济困局。普京政权把走出经济困局的主要目标设定为两点,一是经济稳定,二是经济增长,细化就是两个4%,即通胀率降到4%,GDP增长率提到4%。比较而言,实现增长目标的难度更大,加之考虑战略诉求以及现实迫切要求等重要因素,增长可谓是俄罗斯走出经济困局的关键。出口与投资拉动,是俄政府旨在实现经济增长的主要举措,能否收到实效,其主要的路径依赖在于经济结构的改革和国家管理体系的重构。本文的最后,提出了对于俄罗斯经济前景的基本看法。

The Russian economic crisis,featuring economic recession combined with macroeconomic instability,seems to be triggered by external factors,but actually it is rooted in the domestic economy.The crisis has worsened Russia’s economic situation,but it has also served to push reform to achieve economic transformation.Russia is stepping out of the crisis,but it does not mean it has stepped out of its economic predicament.The Putin Administration has set two main targets in bringing the Russian economy out of predicament.One is economic stability,with an inflation target set at 4%;the other is economic growth,with a GDP growth target set also at 4%.Comparatively,it is more difficult for Russia to achieve its growth target,although it is crucial for Russia’s attempt to step out of its economic predicament.Boosting export and investment is the main measure Russia can take to jazz up growth and whether it will work hinges on its domestic economic restructuring and rebuilding of its national management regime.This article also anticipates the economic prospects of Russia.