从金融周期看中日资产价格泡沫

Financial Cycle and Asset Price Bubbles in China and Japan

本文在系统测算中日金融周期与金融波动的基础上,对比研究了两国金融周期波动性的区别。同时结合两国非金融企业的资金供求状况与银行部门的放款结构变化,从货币政策、融资可得性与市场预期三个环节,逐一梳理了两国金融系统稳定性差异的本质成因。结果显示,中国金融周期的波动性在各个时期均明显弱于日本。两国差异成因的分析研究表明,在相同宽松货币政策环境下,中国政府对企业融资渠道和市场预期的审慎监管调控,避免了中国出现日本企业的财务投机现象与金融过度自由化的演变趋势,抑制了资产价格泡沫对中国金融系统稳定性的冲击与危害。

Based on the measurement of financial cycle and financial volatility in both China and Japan,this article analyzes the differences of volatility between the two countries’financial cycles.By analyzing the BOP table and the changes of loan structure,it studies the essential causes of the differences of the financial system stability between the two countries from the perspectives of monetary policy,financing availability and market expectations.It finds that the volatility of the financial cycle in China is obviously weaker than that in Japan,indicating China has better financial system stability.Result of the comparative analysis shows that in an equally loose policy environment,China’s prudential management of corporate financing channels and market expectations has prevented excessive financial speculation that once occurred in Japan;it has also prevented excessive financial liberalization,thus reducing the impact of asset bubbles on China’s financial system stability.