基于最佳实践的重大国防采办项目风险评估体系研究

A research on the risk assessment system for major U.S.defense acquisition programs and projects based on best practices

美国政府每年在国防武器系统采办上耗资数十亿美元,通过引入先进技术不断提升武器系统性能,随着武器系统越来越复杂,项目风险问题日益突出。本文围绕美国重大武器系统采办项目的风险管理,重点针对进度风险、费用风险和技术风险等模型,开展评估流程、评估标准和评估案例研究,归纳总结美国基于最佳实践的重大国防项目风险评估体系,以此为基础,建议国内统筹考虑技术成熟度评价、进度评估和费用估算,制定政策法规与标准指南来规范和指导国防装备项目风险评估与管理。

U.S. federal government spends billions of dollars each year to develop, acquire and build major systems, develops cutting - edge technologies and integrates into large and complex system, in order to enhance the performance of weapon systems. However, with the systems becoming more and more complex, the risks become a hot issue. The risk assessment system for major defense acquisition programs and projects based on best practices has been established in this paper, and the technical risk, schedule risk and cost risk are analyzed, including assessment process, assessment criteria, and ease studies. Finally, some suggestions are given to risk assessment and management for defense weapon system, including technology readiness assessment, cost estimation and assessment, and schedule assessment should he considered comprehensively, and policies, laws, standards and guidance for defense weapon systems＇ risk management should be established in the future. Keywords： risk assessment; technology readiness assessment; cost estimating and assessment; schedule assessment