中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径——广义迪氏指数分解和动态情景分析

Empirical Decomposition and Peaking Pathway of Carbon Dioxide Emissions of China's Manufacturing Sector——Generalized Divisia Index Method and Dynamic Scenario Analysis

制造业是中国的支柱产业和碳排放大户,其碳减排效果直接决定了中国总体碳减排目标能否顺利实现。本文以《中国制造2025》和中国2030年减排目标为背景,首次使用广义迪氏指数分解法考察了1995—2014年制造业碳排放演变的驱动因素,并基于蒙特卡洛模拟对2015—2030年制造业碳排放的潜在演化趋势进行了动态情景分析,进而比较了碳排放达峰过程中相关因素的贡献差异。结果显示:投资规模是导致制造业碳排放增加的首要因素,而投资碳强度和产出碳强度则是引致碳排放减少的关键因素;重工业和轻工业因其不同发展特征而呈现出碳排放驱动因素的差异化影响;在基准情景和绿色发展情景下,制造业碳排放在2030年之前均将持续增长,而在技术突破情景下,碳排放将有较大可能在2024年提早达峰;除绿色发展情景难以实现"中国制造2025"目标外,其他两种情景设定下的制造业产出碳强度均可实现各阶段的预期下降目标;规模效应的减弱为碳排放达峰提供了有利条件,而投资碳强度和产出碳强度则为碳排放达峰提供了关键驱动力。政府需要进一步引导激励制造业企业增加以节能减排为目的的投资活动,在严格执行节能减排措施和大力发展低碳技术创新的条件下,制造业将具有可观的碳减排潜力。

Manufacturing sector plays a significant role in China＇s economic growth and carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions, and thus its emission-reduction performance has a crucial effect on whether China＇s emission- reduction targets would be realized. Under the background of ＂Made in China 2025＂ and China＇s 2030 emission- reduction targets,this paper first employs the generalized Divisia index method to investigate determinants of CO2 emission changes of manufacturing sector during 1995-2014, and then adopts the Monte Carlo simulation to conduct a dynamic scenario analysis on potential trajectories of CO2 emissions of manufacturing sector during 2015-2030. Furthermore, we explore contributions of various drivers peaking CO2 emissions. The results show that investment scale is the primary driver for the increase in CO2 emissions, while investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are leading contributors to the reduction in CO2 emissions. Heavy industry and light industry present different effects of drivers on CO2 emissions due to their different development characteristics. CO2 emissions will consistently increase by 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario and green-development scenario. In contrast,CO2 emissions are very likely to hit the peak in 2024 under the technological-break through scenario. All the scenarios will achieve intensity-reduction targets, except the green-development scenario for ＂Made in China 2025＂ target. The weakening scale effect provides a prerequisite for peaking CO2 emissions, while investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity play a key role in peaking CO2 emissions. The government should further encourage manufacturing enterprises to increase investment activity aimed at energy-saving and emission- reduction. Under the condition of strict energy-saving and emission-reduction measures and vigorous development of low-carbon technology innovation, manufacturing sector will have substantial CO2 mitigation potentials.