宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调搭配——基于贝叶斯估计的DSGE模型

Coordination Between Macro-prudential Policy and Monetary Policy:Based on a DSGE Model by Bayesian Estimation

本文构建了一个植入房价波动的DSGE模型,系统考察了宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调搭配。基于中国经济数据的模拟分析得到了三个基本结论:(1)从协调的机制看,宏观审慎政策应根据信贷的不同对象和具体投放情况进行调整,货币政策应继续致力于物价稳定,通过合理的协调搭配,既能有效降低单一政策工具所面临的多目标困境和政策负担,又能在各自擅长的领域发挥优势;(2)从协调的政策规则设定看,两种政策均青睐标准的泰勒规则,而不是其他更为复杂的多目标规则;(3)从协调的实施看,两种政策在实施中均涉及"方向"和"力度"的选择,协调中需避免"政策冲突"和"政策叠加"问题,任何问题的出现不仅会影响政策协调的效果,而且会增加政策实施的成本,同时会增加社会福利损失。

By implanting housing price fluctuation into the DSGE model,the coordination problems between macro-prudential policy and monetary policy are studied in this paper.Three basic conclusions are drawn based on China＇s economic data by the numerical simulation analysis.First,from the perspective of coordination mechanism,the adjustment of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy should be based on maintaining financial stability and price stability,respectively.Reasonable coordination of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy,not only can avoid the plight of multi-objective and policy burden faced by a single policy,but also can maximize the effect of every policy.Second,from the perspective of setting policy rules in course of coordination,all of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy prefer simple normal Taylor rule rather than other complex rules with multi-objective.Third,from the perspective of coordination implementation,the implementation of every policy relates to the choice of direction and intensity in course of coordination,the coordination should avoid the＂policy conflict＂or＂policy overlay＂,for these problems not only weaken the effect of coordination,but also augment the cost of policy execution.