拒优战略:中美亚太主导权竞争

Advantages-resisting Strategy:China-US-Competition over Leadership in the Asia Pacific Region

中美两国是亚太地区的重要大国,随着两国间实力差距的不断缩小,双方的竞争有所加剧,并且日益具有地缘影响和战略意义,致使中美亚太主导权竞争逐渐显现。在此情况下,两国采取何种战略进行和平竞争尤为关键。无论是权力制衡、规范制衡、对冲战略还是共同进化理论,都不足以完整解释当前中美亚太战略的互动。在两国竞争凸显且目前很难取得和解的情况下,文章尝试提出一种拒优战略,以更好地理解两国间的主导权竞争。拒优战略旨在削弱对手竞争优势、滞缓竞争对手获得主导权,主要通过自我权力增强、塑造制度优势、阻遏对手权势转化等手段加以实施,具有强烈的预期主导性、针对性、不合作性和复合性特征。当前中美双方在亚太地区的战略行为表明,两国都在实施拒优战略,不过其结果具有很大的不确定性,既有可能导致亚太地区的制度竞争激烈、地区分化加剧,也有可能促使中美逐渐放弃积极对抗,增加消极合作,促进两国在亚太地区和平共处与协商领导,关键取决于中美双方的战略博弈过程和能否达成共享主导权的战略共识。

China and the U.S.are the two most important major powers in the Asia Pacific Region.As the gap in power between the two states continues to narrow,competition between them has intensified with increasing geopolitical influence and strategic implications.This has made the contest between China and the US over leadership in Asia and the Pacific increasingly evident.Under these circumstances,the question of what type of strategy the two states adopt to engage in peaceful competition is most critical.This article attempts to propose a new approach to better understand the competition over regional leadership between the two powers:the advantagesresisting strategy.An advantages-resisting strategy aims to strategically undermine an opponent’s strategic advantages,and weaken its ability to gain a dominant position.This is accomplished primarily by aprocess of enhancing one’s own capabilities,creating institutional advantages,and preventing an opponent from using its power.Together such efforts function to check,obstruct and ultimately weaken any dominant position that an opponent might otherwise gain.Such a strategy is based on extreme expectations of directions states will take,is highly targeted,resists cooperation,and is highly complex.A consideration of the strategic behavior of the US and China in the Asia Pacific Region illustrates that both states are applying an advantages-resisting strategy,but that the outcome of such a strategy is highly uncertain.The key will be whether the strategic competition between the US and China can result in a strategic consensus over shared leadership in the region.