基于机会约束模型的土地利用结构不确定优化

Optimization of Land Use Structure Based on Chance-constrained Programming Model

土地利用结构优化是土地利用规划编制的核心,但未来充满不确定性,因此规划实施者在进行土地利用结构优化时对不确定因素难以准确把握,不确定土地利用结构优化已成为提高规划科学性的重点。论文以不确定指标的置信水平还原不确定环境,决策者可以根据自身对不确定性的判别与偏好设置约束条件的约束强度,进而分析不同约束强度下土地利用结构优化结果。通过构建机会约束模型来处理不确定土地利用结构优化,可得到某一约束强度下的优化结果,并把不确定变量的置信水平划分为五个区间,从情景一到情景五逐渐增加不确定变量约束强度,进而考察不同约束强度下土地利用结构优化水平。结果发现不同约束强度下土地利用结构优化结果差异明显,导致相应用地类型发生数量变化。其中不同用地类型中对不确定性因素变化敏感性最大的是城镇工矿用地、其他建设用地与未利用地,敏感性最小的是耕地。该研究提供了一种解决不确定土地利用结构优化问题的方法,可提高土地利用规划应对未来不确定性的能力。

Optimization of land use structure is the core content of land use planning, but the future is full of uncertainty, so it is difficult to forecast accurately uncertain variable size when we optimizing land use structure. Solving the problem of uncertainty in land use structure optimization has become the key point of improving the quality of the planning. In this paper, the uncertainty environment is restored by the confidence level of uncertain index. The decision makers can change constraint strength of the uncertain index according to their own preferences on the uncertainties, and then analyze the structural optimization results of different land use constraint intensity. In this paper, the confidence level of uncertain variables is divided into five sections, with the intensity of the uncertain variables gradually increased from the scenario one to scenario five, and then we canstudy the optimization level of land use structure under different restraint intensity.We found that the results of land use optimiza- tion will be significantly different under different constraints, with the town and industrial land, other construction land and unuti- lized land among those most sensitive to the uncertainty, and the cultivated land among those least sensitive to the uncertainty. This study provides a scientific method to deal with the problem of uncertain land use structure optimization, which can improve the level and flexibility of land use planning.