2015年浙江省艾滋病疫情估计

Estimation of HIV epidemic in Zhejiang province,2015

目的估计2015年浙江省存活的艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)人数,探索适宜的艾滋病疫情估计方法。方法收集2015年浙江省11个市艾滋病主要受累人群的规模和HIV感染率等数据,主要应用Workbook模型估计艾滋病流行现状。结果 2015年浙江省估计HIV/AIDS人数为20 902人(15 439~26 365),估计男男性接触人群HIV/AIDS人数为10 567人(7 699~13 435),其中城市占35.2%,农村占15.4%;估计异性性传播HIV/AIDS人数为9 745人(7 214~12 277),其中商业性占27.1%,非商业占19.5%;经注射吸毒、血液和母婴传播仅占2.1%、0.4%和0.3%。浙江省估计HIV感染率为0.038%(0.028%~0.048%),地区间存在较大差异。结论 Workbook模型是开展艾滋病疫情估计的适宜工具,其估计结果对浙江省的艾滋病防治工作具有指导意义。

Objective To estimate HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV/AIDS（ PLHA） in Zhejiang,and explore appropriate methods for epidemic estimation. Methods The data on population size affected by AIDS and HIV infection rate were collected in all the 11 prefectures of Zhejiang. And then workbook method was used to estimate the epidemic of HIV /AIDS in Zhejiang. Results In 2015,the estimated number of PLHA was 20 902（ 15 439- 26 365）,the estimated number of PLHA in men who have sex with men（ MSM） was 10 567（ 7 699- 13 435）,in which 35. 2% were distributed in urban area and 15. 4% in rural area and the estimated number of PLHA in people with heterosexual behaviors was 9 745（ 7 214- 12 277）,in which those involved in commercial sex accounted for 27. 1% and in non-commercial sex accounted for 19. 4%. The proportions of HIV infections caused by injecting drug use,blood transmission,mother to child transmission were only 2. 1%,0. 4% and 0. 3%,respectively. The overall HIV prevalence was estimated to be 0. 038%（ 0. 028%- 0. 048%）,but the area specific differences were obvious. Conclusion Workbook method is suitable for the HIV/AIDS epidemic estimation,and the estimation results can be used to facilitate the prevention and control of AIDS in Zhejiang.