基于熵权法的农业现代化互动因素协同发展实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Coordinated Development of the Agricultural Modernization's Interactive Factors based on Entropy Right

工业化、信息化、城镇化保障了加快推进农业现代化的实现,同时,农业现代化也对其他"三化"产生反馈作用。通过采用1978-2014年的数据,建立"四化"指标体系,利用熵值法确定权重。实证分析表明:长期内,工业化、信息化、城镇化能促进农业现代化的发展;动态计量模型表明滞后一期的"四化"指标变量总体上对当期农业现代化的影响是正向的;农业现代化对其他"三化"有明显的反馈作用。

The industrialization,informatization and urbanization ensure the implementation of the accelerating agricultural modernization. At the same time,the agricultural modernization also has a feedback effect on the other ＂three conversions＂. This paper used the data of the 1978 -2014 to establish the index system for the ＂four mod- ernizations＂, and determined weights by the entropy method. Through the empirical analysis, we can see that in the long run, the industrialization, informatization and urbanization can promote the development of agricultural moderni- zation. The dynamic econometric model shows that the lag phase of the ＂four modernizations＂ indicator variables generally have a positive impact in the current agricultural modernization ;and the agricultural modernization has an obvious feedback effect on the other ＂three conversions＂.