河南区域经济差异的时空演变及影响机制研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Influence Mechanisms of Regional Economic Disparities of Henan Province

采用探索性空间数据分析、马尔科夫链以及空间多层次回归等方法,分析河南省近二十年来区域经济差异的时空演变及其影响机制。主要结论有:(1)空间尺度和时间尺度对河南省的区域经济差异有着重要的影响。空间尺度越小,区域经济差异越大。区级与市级的经济差异整体上呈现扩大的趋势,而县级经济差异趋于平缓变动。(2)从空间分布来看,大致呈现核心-外围的格局,富裕区域主要分布在河南省中部与西北部地区,特别集中在中部地区,而贫困区域主要分布在东部与南部,特别集中在东部区域。(3)投资水平、分权化、产业结构、资源禀赋等是造成河南区域经济差异扩大的原因,而市场活跃度、城乡分异、地形因素等则一定程度上缩小了这种差异。最后,提出缩小河南区域经济差异的政策建议。

This paper studies spatial-temporal evolution and influenee mechanisms of regional economic disparities for the last two dec- ades of Henan province, using exploratory spatial data analysis, Markov chains and spatial multi-level regression analysis methods. The main results are： first, regional economic disparities in Henan Province are sensitive to the spatial scales and time scales. It is more apparent at finer spatial scales. The economic disparities at municipality level and regional level are experiencing increasing tends, while economic disparities at county level are changing gently. Second, from the perspective of spatial distribution, regional economic disparities in Henan present core-periphery pattern generally. Rich peripheral regions mainly lie in central and north-western regions of Henan Province, while poor areas are mainly distributed in the east and south and particularly concentrate in the eastern region. Third, multi-level regression results reveal that investment, decentralization, industrial structure, resource endowment are the important mech- anisms for understanding the regional economic disparities in Henan Province, while market flexibility, urban-rural differences, terrain factors have remitted the regional inequality effectively. Finally, related policy recommendations for reducing regional economic dispari- ties in Henan Province have been put forward.