政府支出、通货膨胀与中国繁荣—衰退周期

Government Spending,Inflation and China's Boom-Bust Cycles

1978年以来中国宏观经济增长强劲且波动剧烈,中国经济波动存在明显的繁荣—衰退周期。政府的凯恩斯主义宏观调控政策使得政府支出在中国繁荣—衰退周期中扮演重要角色。笔者尝试在动态随机一般均衡模型的框架下,引入政府支出的外部性、政府支出对通胀的逆向调整及政府支出的货币融资渠道,来解释中国宏观经济波动中的繁荣—衰退周期。研究表明:(1)政府支出波动是中国繁荣—衰退周期的重要诱因;(2)政府支出的外部性是中国繁荣—衰退周期形成的关键机制;(3)政府支出的货币融资渠道及对通胀的逆向调整有助于解释中国通胀波动的顺周期性及滞后性。

China＇ s economy has the obvious boom-bust cycles with rapid economic growth since the start of economic reform in 1978. China＇ s government spending plays an important role in China＇ s boom-bust cycles under Keynesian fiscal policy. This paper attempts to explain the reality of China＇ s boom-bust cycles in the macroeconomic fluctuation based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the externality of government spending, inverse adjustment to inflation and monetary financing channels of government spending. The results reveal that ： （ 1 ） the fluctuation of government spending is a major source aggravating China＇ s boom-bust cycles ; （2） the government spending externality is the key mechanism to China＇ s boom-bust cycles ; （ 3 ） by the government spending inverse adjustment to inflation and money creation supporting system, the model can simulate that the China＇ s inflation is procyclical and lags output in boom-bust cycles.