我国扩大居民消费与宏观经济稳定研究

Study of the Expansion of Chinese Resident's Consumption and the Macroeconomic Stability

在我国当前畸形的投资消费结构下,提高消费率,必然要求降低投资率。为满足柯布-道格拉斯生产函数规模报酬不变的假设,找到第三产业就业比重作为技术进步的代理变量,在此前提下运用总量生产函数,笔者研究了降低投资率对我国宏观经济稳定(用GDP经济增长速度代理)与居民消费率的影响。结果发现:减少投资,会导致GDP增速降低,在假定货物与服务净出口和政府消费占GDP的份额不变的条件下,居民消费额会增加,而且居民消费占GDP的比重也会增加(除去少数例外)。我国投资减少GDP的5%,GDP的增速将下降到4%左右,居民消费率增长约3.5%。我国GDP增速4%,可能是我们可以接受的GDP增速的一个"心理底线"。

Under China ＇ s current deformity structure of the investment and consumption, for the purpose of improving the consumption rate it is necessary to reduce the investment rate. In order to meet the assumption of the Cobb-Douglas production function with constant scale returns, in the premise of taking third industrial employment proportion as technological progress proxy variable, through the us- age of the aggregate production function, this paper studies the impact of reducing investment rate on China＇ s macroeconomic stability （ using the economic growth rate in GDP as agent variable） and the rate of consumption. The results show that reducing the investment will lead to a lower growth rate of GDP. Under the assumption that the net exports of goods and services, government consumption remain as a fixed share of GDP, resident＇ s consumption will increase, and the consumption share of GDP will also increase（ with a few exceptions）. To reduce China＇ s investment by 5% of GDP , the GDP growth will fall to around 4%, and resident＇ s consumption will increase about 3.5%. In China, GDP growth rate of 4% may be a ＂psychological bottom line＂ of GDP growth rate that we can accept.