中国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果

Economic Results of the Birth Rate Changing under Shocking of Aging in China

快速老龄化对我国经济产生广泛的影响,我国也先后实施"单独二孩"和"全面二孩"政策,以提高出生率来应对人口快速老龄化问题。然而,已有研究主要是基于过去人口变化的特征事实作出的,而我国在老龄化冲击下调整计划生育政策,将会改变人口原有的变化趋势,这是已有研究没有遇到过的新情况。本文以"全面二孩"政策的实施为契机,使用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)分析了我国人口老龄化冲击下出生率变动的经济效果,研究发现提高出生率总体上有利于应对人口老龄化对经济的冲击,但也会付出物价上涨、经济波动增加及社会福利下降的代价。在以上结论基础上,本文做了进一步的探讨。

Aging of population has wide impact on economics in China. The 2nd-child policy and the universal second-child policy are carried out chronologically,hope dealing with aging by raising birth rate. The one-child policy was changed for dealing with aging,and the tendency of population will change. Because of the existing research based on characteristic fact of population changing,they don＇t give directly evidence of theory and experience for dealing with aging by raising birth rate. We take the two children policy as an opportunity,explore the economic results of raising birth rate under the shock of aging in China by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,We find raising birth rate can deal with aging,but the cost of raising birth rate is inflation,economic fluctuations and welfare loss. We discuss the policy based on the above conclusion.