全球价值链视角下的中国产业供需匹配与升级研究

Research on Matching and Upgrading of China's Industrial Supply and Demand in the View of Global Value Chain

研究目标:更精确地反映全球价值链下中国产业供需不匹配和升级情况。研究方法:运用2016年WIOD投入产出表的数据,将中间品投入与吸收产业一一匹配以构造更微观的分类,计算出产业内贸易指数、出口技术复杂度等指数,并探讨了全球价值链嵌入对产业供需匹配的影响。研究发现:2001年以来中国产业供需不匹配程度高速增长,但增速不断降低,中国需求层面的技术复杂度水平普遍高于供给层面,而美国则正好相反;全球价值链地位、垂直专业化水平对供需不匹配程度的影响效果在不同收入水平国家间存在差异。研究创新:通过新产业分类从更微观的层面了解中国产业供需不匹配情况。研究价值:为中国未来的"供给侧结构性改革"和产业转型升级提供理论基础和政策建议。

Research Objectives： This article reflects the grading issue under the GVC. Research Methods： domestic supply-demand mismatch and up- By using the WIOD input-output table data, this paper matches the input industry with the inflow industry of intermediate goods and reconstructs a more accurate industries classification. This paper also explores China＇s industrial supply-demand and upgrading situation by calculating the intra-industry trade index, sophistication index, studies the effects of global value chain embeddedness on the matching and upgrading of China＇s industrial supply and demand. Research Findings： It is found that the gap between supply and demand in many industries has been increasing rapidly while the growth rate has been slowed down after 2001, the technological complexity level of China＇s demand level ranked generally higher than the supply level, while the United States is on the contrary. Countries with different income levels may have different effect of value chain status and vertical specialization degree on the degree of supply-demand mismatch. Research Innovations： This paper constructs a new classification data and explores the demand matching problem in supply-side reform. Research Value： The result can provide a new perspective for supply-side reform.