城镇化生态风险预警系统设计与关键技术研究

Design and Key Technology of the Ecological Risk Early Warning System of Urbanization Process

城镇化的快速发展,对周围的生态环境构成了巨大的威胁,城镇化的过程中存在的不确定性发展变化因素影响了城市生态风险预警的准确性,甚至会导致错误的风险管理决策。以CLUE-S模型和灰色数学模型为关键预警技术,利用CLUE-S模型预测城镇化过程中空间信息变化的趋势,利用灰色数学模型预测监测和统计的非空间信息指标的发展趋势,最终形成了以GIS技术为核心的生态安全信息数据库,并通过空间研究和基础数据分析建立城镇化生态风险预警系统,可时时掌握区域的生态承载力风险警情,且可针对不同的城市发展状态进行不同的预案预测,以为区域生态安全管理提供准确可靠的辅助决策支持。

The rapid development of urbanization causes a great threat to the ecological environment.The uncertain changing and developing factors existing in the process of urbanization affect the accuracy of urban ecological risk early warning,and even lead to risk management decision errors.This paper takes the CLUE-S model and the grey mathematics model as the key early warning technologies,of which the former forecasts the tendency of spatial information during the process of urbanization while the latter predicts the development of non-spatial monitoring and statistical information indexes.Thus the paper builds an ecological security information database based on GIS technology,and establishes the ecological early warning model through space research and basic data analysis which may grasp the real-time regional ecological carrying capacity,and the system predicts urban development situations with different planning schemes,providing accurate and reliable aid decision support system for regional ecological security management.