生命周期视角下并购类型对上市公司信用风险的影响--基于KMV模型的实证研究

The Impacts of Merger Types on Credit Risk of the Listed Companies from the Perspective of Corporate Life-cycle:An Empirical Test Based on the KMV Model

以2009—2013年沪、深股市发生并购事件的103家上市公司为研究样本,利用KMV模型对不同生命周期、不同并购类型的上市公司并购事件发生前和并购事件发生后的信用风险进行了实证分析。研究发现,不同并购类型的上市公司并购前后的信用风险变化情况呈现生命周期差异。处于成长期的公司,实施相关并购会降低信用风险,实施多元化并购会增加信用风险;处于成熟期的公司,则相反。同时,还从不同角度进行了稳健性检验,发现研究结论不变,进一步验证了结论的可靠性。从企业生命周期视角研究并购类型对上市公司信用风险的影响,补充和拓展了现有上市公司并购风险方面的研究,同时也对企业并购决策和公司治理有重要启示。

This paper chooses the 103 listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges which have mergers in 2009-2013 as our sample. We divide these companies into different corporate life cycle stages and estimate their credit risk before and after mergers by using the KMV model The findings suggest that the changes in credit risk of these listed companies depend on their stages of life-cycle. For companies in growth periods, mergers across （within） industries increase （decrease） their credit risk. But mergers across （within） industries have the opposite impacts on the mature companies. In addition, these conclusions are verified by the robustness checks. This paper confirms that the impacts of mergers on firms＇ credit risk vary across corpo rate life-cycles. This extends and enriches the extant literature in the relationship between merg- ers and risks and also offers enlightenment for better decision of M＆A and corporate governance.