承接产业示范区能够推动经济发展吗?——基于双重差分方法的验证

Does Undertaking Industrial Demonstration Areas Promote Economic Development? Based on the Difference in Differences Estimation

基于全国295个城市2000-2014年的面板数据,利用双重差分法(Difference in Differences Estimation)验证了国家级承接产业示范区对地区经济增长的影响。研究表明,国家级承接产业示范区的设立能够显著推动地区生产总值和地区人均生产总值增长,严格稳健性检验下的结论仍然成立;进一步分析发现,国家级承接产业示范区对经济增长的影响符合"边际效应递减"规律,对经济发展相对较好、禀赋较优地区的推动作用要小于经济基础薄弱、无明显禀赋优势地区。这一结论为规模推广国家级承接产业示范区战略,更好平衡区域发展、把握将来产业转移大潮提供了借鉴意义。

Based on the 2000-2014 panel data of 295 cities in China, the author verify the influence of the national industrial demonstration areas on the regional economic growth by using Difference in Differences Method. The study shows that the establishment of national industrial demonstration areas can significantly promote the growth of GDP and per GDP capita in the region, and the conclusion is still valid under strict robustness test. Further analysis shows that the national industrial demonstration area＇s impact on economic growth is in accordance with the ＂law of diminishing marginal effect＂, that the influence on the economic development relatively good and better promote endowment area is smaller than the economic development relatively good and no obvious advantages of natural area. This conclusion provides a reference for the promotion of undertaking the industrial demonstration areas strategy, better balancing regional development, grasping the future of industrial transfer tide.