中国机电产品出口东盟国家贸易潜力评估——基于打造中国#1#东盟自贸区升级版背景

On China' Export Trade Potential of Electromechanical Products to ASEAN Countries——Based on the background of upgraded CAFTA

当前中国机电产品对东盟国家出口贸易现状呈现以下特点:出口规模持续扩大,出口增速有所下降但仍保持较高水平;出口市场比较集中,对主要出口市场的依赖程度相对而言有明显变化;出口东盟大部分国家的机电产品均依赖相同的少数种类,且出口产品结构调整的幅度因国别而异。基于贸易引力模型面板数据的实证研究认为,自贸区升级版下中国机电产品对东盟市场的出口潜力总体上属于潜力开拓型,但机电产品出口潜力大小在国别市场并不相同,而且不同种类的机电产品对东盟特定国家的出口潜力又显差异。

The current situation of export trade of China＇ s electromechanical products to ASEAN countries has the following characteristics ： while the scale of export trade continued to soar, the export growth to ASEAN has declined, but still maintained a high level; While the export market to ASEAN countries is concentrated, the dependence on the major ASEAN markets has changed significantly; while the export trade to most of the ASEAN countries depends on minor types, the range of export struc- tural adjustment varies from country to country in the ASEAN markets. Based on the modified gravity model, an empirical analy- sis using Panel Data was conducted. The result showed that： generally, the export potential to ASEAN markets was promising in the future, but the export potential of different kinds of China＇ s electromechanical products varied in different ASEAN countries.