东部沿海人口城镇化与公共服务协调发展的空间特征及影响因素

Spatial Characteristics and Driving Factors between Population Urbanization and Public Service in the Eastern Coastal Areas

以东部沿海为例,运用熵值法和空间自相关,对2003—2013年人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展水平的空间特征进行综合评价,在此基础上,通过空间计量模型,定量分析经济水平、政府政策、工业化水平、市场化程度和对外开放水平五个因素对人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展关系的影响程度。结果表明:①2003—2013年,东部沿海人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调度波动提升,空间上主要呈现"群"状分布,与城市群空间结构的拟合度较高。②全局莫兰指数为正表明东部沿海人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调水平空间集聚特征显著,局部空间自相关则表明二者的协调发展除了具有空间依赖性,还表现出空间异质性。③经济水平、政府政策、工业化水平和对外开放程度对人口城镇化与基本公共服务的良性互动均发挥正向作用,其中政府政策和经济水平是促进二者协调发展的主要因素。④提高经济发展水平、推进基本公共服务均等化战略、扩大对外开放程度以及加快工业化进程是实现东部沿海人口城镇化与基本公共服务协调发展的重要途径。

Taking the Eastem Coastal Areas as a study case, this article used the coupling and coordinating model and spatial autocorrelation to analyze the relationship between population urbanization and basic public service from 2003 to 2013, and used the spatial econometric model to analyze the impact of the economic level, government policies, the level of industrialization, market-oriented and openness on the coordinated development of population urbanization and basic public service in the coastal areas. Results showed that, firstly, the level of coordinated development in coastal areas is rising as a whole with fluctuation, cities with high coordination of population urbanization and basic public services shows their ＂cluster＂ distribution, which is just fit for the distribution of the big cities. Secondly, the improving of Moran＇s I indicates that the coordinated development level of population urbanization and basic public services have a significant characteristic of spatial autocorrelation, and LISA space diagram indicates that the coordinated development level of population urbanization and basic public services have not only the characteristics of spatial dependence, but also the performance of spatial heterogeneity. Thirdly, economic level, government policies, the level of industrialization and market-oriented development play a positive role in promoting basic public services, which the government policy and economic level are the two main factors. Fourthly, promoting the development of economic and basic public services equalization, improving the degree of openness, accelerating the industrialization process are important ways to enhance the coordinated development level of population urbanization and basic public services in the coastal areas.